Life on the Fault Line

(Across The Valley - Spring 2008)

                                                                        By  Susan Perez

California has its faults……approximately 200 that have been identified and many more will be discovered in the coming years.  Many of our 37 million plus residents of Southern California have learned how to cope sitting atop the roughly 800 mile long San Andreas Fault which forms the boundary for the Pacific and the North American plates.  The Pacific Plate and the North American plates are grinding past each other at approximately two inches per year and they have been doing so long before we began recording them over 100 years ago.  Our “Golden State” state hosts half of the nation’s seismic risk.  There are approximately 30 earthquakes a day in Southern California and 45-50 in Northern California.   As we go about our busy schedules, many of these earthquakes go undetected, but they are occurring continually under our feet. 

We have witnessed the aftermath of the San Francisco quake of April 18, 1906, with an approximate magnitude of M7.7-7.9; the M7.1 Loma Prieta quake of October 17, 1989 and we are constantly preparing for the anticipated “Big One”.  Many might think that the M6.7 Northridge quake of 1994 was our “Big One”.  It wasn’t!    It was just a wakeup call of things to come.  Northridge was not even considered catastrophic.  That being said, I am sure that the people it affected would say we are incorrect.  However, catastrophic events are defined by the devastation of our infrastructure.  The inability to continue business, supply utilities, and a shortage of food and water would severely impact our society and would take months, if not years to replace.  Katrina was catastrophic.  The disaster was so large, that you could not drive out of it.  Dr. Lucy Jones has stated that “our anticipated 7.9 which might have a shake capability of two to four minutes will be our “Katrina without the water”.   

New information released on April 14, 2008, by the Southern California Earthquake Center shows there is a 99.7% chance of Southern California experiencing an earthquake magnitude 6.7 or larger on the Southern San Andreas Fault.  This gives us pause for reflection and concern for our future.  But this scenario is not one of doom and gloom unless, we do nothing.  There are fire, police, emergency management, focus groups, inter-agency plans, training and statistical information that are available to us.  Our responsibility is to act upon that information.  Preparedness is the key; mitigation will save structures and lives.  But why is there such complacence?  Often we say it will not happen here, or to me, and so forth.  I think that Katrina along with 911 should cement the fact that it has…. and it will…. and most importantly, it is survivable.   The time to act is now, not next week, or next month.   The time to buy water, food or gasoline is not the day of the disaster.  You want to be safe with your families and shelter in place if possible.  Make sure everyone in your household and at work knows the plan of action. 

The upcoming “Golden Guardian – Shift Happens” statewide earthquake exercise in November 2008 will test our capabilities to endure and survive a catastrophic earthquake.  The scenario will be based on 15 years of research by our own Dr. Lucy Jones of the USGS.  This drill will be using real data collected on the capacity of our 800 mile long San Andrea fault.  Since the length of the fault line in large part determines the magnitude you may discount those disaster movies which say we could experience a 9 or 10 magnitude.  Our fault line is just not long enough.  A fault that would generate a ten would potentially circle the globe and cut the earth in half the experts say.

So …does that mean we can relax?  Only if you are prepared!  From years of providing Community Disaster Education to churches, schools, neighborhood watch groups, women’s clubs, etc. I have learned that preparedness is empowering.  That being said, preparedness begins at home.  Every individual has the responsibility to prepare themselves and their families for disaster.  As Red Cross we are the bridge to providing our city and community entities with the training and support to be ready to endure a disaster.  Remember …. “Together You Can Save a Life” and the life you save may be your own!